小弟最近买了CARLSBRG来投机（不懂会不会变长期投资
）。股价很高。我有点怕。
投机原因： 2011Q4's Christmas, 2012 CNY, 2012 euro cup, 2012 olympics, Asahi, Singapore持续的贡献。
也看到医师要把他作为长期投资的股，所以决定帮个忙做点基本分析。最近也突然多了ah king ko的加入。
此贴将写关于CARLSBRG的简单基本分析。
A）Yearly的基本分析
CARLSBG最近2年业绩的成长率比GAB高很多。最要原因是CARLSBERG SINGAPORE & LION BREWERY (CEYLON) plc的加入。
CARLSBG最近2年业绩的盈利率，也悄悄滴快步增长中。新加坡的盈利率会比大马的盈利率高（资料将放在Segment Report里）。
CARLSBG的每股盈利，突飞猛进。最要原因是多了子公司的加入。
很明显看到，CARLSBG的每股现金降低了很多。导致Current Ratio也降低。原因是收购子公司，公司动用了一大笔资金。可以讲在没贷款（或很少)的情况下做收购。
这里可以看到，CARLSBG的投入的Investing Activities在最近两年都很高。Financial Activities还是维持在低水平，代表没什么贷款。
2008年开始看到有Minority Interest，是因为子公司开始为公司带来盈利了。
以下的资料，不用多解析了。看不懂才发问。
B)Quarterly的基本分析
C)Segment Report的基本分析
只有CARLSBERG有segment report
D)其余资料
CARLSBERG TO BREW PREMIUM BRANDS IN MALAYSIA
CLASSIFICATION:
TYPE:
29 November 2011
CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA plans to brew at least two premium beer brands locally in the next 6-12 months said MD, SOREN RAVN. He said at present, the brands are being imported from countries, such as Japan, Mexico and France. Without revealing the brands, he said one of it, is a current premium product, under the Company's umbrella. " .... By producing the premium beers here, we can save a lot in costs, such as import duties, transportation and logistics .... Currently, the duty on imported beer is RM5 per litre. So you can calculate the amount we can save ...." he told the Press on Nov 15, 2011 after the Company's 3QE Sep 2011 results.
RAVN also said that producing premium brands locally, can also result in the price of the beer going down, as CARLSBERG MALAYSIA has no additional cost to impose on consumers.
He said that the Company's current brewery in Shah Alam has enough capacity and the technology expertise to produce the beer locally. " .... We are also aiming to capture at least 50% of the Malaysian premium market share in the next five years ...." he said, adding, the current market share is less than 20%.
Asked whether CARLSBERG MALAYSIA's business had been disrupted by the economic slowdown in the west, RAVN said where the beer industry is concerned, it is a more resilient segment. " .... Moreover, in the Malaysian beer market, the level of growth in terms of volume is more fixed, with the annual growth only seen at 3-4% .... So there is not much disruption ....".
Moving forward, RAVN said the Company expects an exciting 2012 with another set of profitable financial results.
For 9ME Sep 2011, CARLSBERG recorded an increased PBT of RM174.153m versus RM136.628m same quarter a year ago.
Cumulative Revenue for 9ME Sep 2011 also rose to RM1.154 bil versus the RM1.042 bil same period last year.
WORLD CUP SEASON PUSHES CARLSBERG 2QE JUN 2010 NET PROFIT UP 138% TO RM30.8M
CLASSIFICATION: ACCOUNTING/AUDIT NOTIFICATION/ANALYSIS & BUSINESS PROJECTIONS
TYPE: Short Analysis / Reviews
20 September 2010
CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA had a 138% surge in Net Profit for 2QE Jun 2010 to RM30.8m, from the RM12.9m Net Profit same quarter a year ago.
The World Cup season in Jun 2010 pushed sales up, and the Company had a 56.8% increase in Revenue for 2QE Jun 2010 to RM334.2m, from the RM213.4m Revenue same quarter a year ago, while EPS rose to 10.08 sen from 4.21 sen.
1HE JUN 2010 NET PROFIT DOUBLES TO RM68.7M
In 1HE Jun 2010, the Company achieved a Net Profit of RM68.7m, double its 1HE Jun 2009 Net Profit of RM34.3m. Revenue for 1HE Jun 2010 soared 41.5% to RM712.6m, from its previous RM503.0m Revenue, attributed to its 2010 Chinese New Year festive campaign, the World Cup sales, and the contributions by its newly acquired CARLSBERG SINGAPORE.
PROSPECTS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
For the year ahead, MD SOREN RAVN was quoted in EXCHANGE FILINGS as stating that it plans to "....focus on driving for profitable growth in the domestic market...." as CARLSBERG is the No. 1 beer brand in the country. The Company foresees growth of the beer market as the economy improves.
CASH & BANK BALANCES DROP TO A THIRD, PAYABLES FALL
The Company's Cash & Bank Balances as at Jun 30, 2010 dropped to RM42.4m from its Jan 1, 2010 balances of RM118.6m.
Payables and Accruals as at Jun 30, 2010 fell to RM199.0m, from RM340.4m on Jan 1, 2010.
CARLSBERG MALAYSIA PURCHASE OF S'PORE UNIT VIEWED FAVOURABLY BY ANALYSTS
CLASSIFICATION: ACCOUNTING/AUDIT NOTIFICATION/ANALYSIS & BUSINESS PROJECTIONS
TYPE: Short Analysis / Reviews
02 September 2009
CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA's proposed MOU with its parent company CARLSBERG BREWERS as to acquire CARLSBERG SINGAPORE pl for RM370m cash announced late Jul 2009 has been viewed favourably by analysts.
MAYBANK INVESTMENT BANK said that " .... On the onset, the acquisition is positive for CARLSBERG MALAYSIA as it will be earnings accretive and the Company will retain its contract manufacturing rights for CARLSBERG SINGAPORE that it lost in 2007 ....".
AMRESEARCH said " .... We view this development favourably as CARLSBERG MALAYSIA would be able to venture into the Singapore landscape and hence increase its earnings potential ....". AMRESEARCH also noted that the Malaysian malt liquor market (MLM), estimated at 1.3m hectolitres per annum had been stagnant from 2006 to 2008 with an estimated growth of 1% over the years.
LOSS OF MARKET SHARE
CARLSBERG is believed to have lost market share over the past few years and now command 44% to 46% of MLM market, as compared to GUINNESS ANCHOR's 54% to 56% ...." said AMRESEARCH.
ACQUISITION SCHEDULED FOR COMPLETION BY NOV 1, 2009
The MoU is scheduled to be completed by Nov 1, 2009 and CARLSBERG BREWERS as would provide a Net Profit guarantee for CARLSBERG SINGAPORE for 2009 and 2010.
AMRESEARCH said taht CARLSBERG MALAYSIA should have no problems with financing the purchase as it has Cash and Bank Balances of RM231 as at Mar 2009 and Short-Term Borrowings of RM7m as same date. " .... We reckon that the Group would still be comfortable with a Gearing of about 0.4 times, assuming RM170m in Borrowings to finance the acquisition ....". This is before consolidating any potential debts at CARLSBERG SINGAPORE level.
CANCELLATION OF SPECIAL DIVIDEND FOR FY2008
In 2008, CARLSBERG MALAYSIA raised many questions when it decided not to pay a Special Dividend for 2008, as was the normal practice. It conserved at least RM52m in cash in 2008 when it cut dividends from 35 sen per share in 2007 to just 12.5 sen per share for FY2008. Share prices went into a tailspin until CARLSBERG MALAYSIA clarified that it was conserving cash for a potential acquisition.
Under the MoU, CARLSBERG as gave an undertaking that it would support any Board decision for CARLSBERG MALAYSIA to declare dividends premised on a payout ratio of 50% to 70% for a duration of five years from FY09.
NO DETAILS ON CARLSBERG S'PORE PROFITABILITY
No details were released on CARLSBERG SINGAPORE's profitability, except an assurance that the acquisition will be earnings accretive for CARLSBERG MALAYSIA.
" .... Based on our rough estimate, CARLSBERG SINGAPORE should generate a Net Profit of at least RM20m per annum ...." said MAYBANK IB.
AMRESEARCH said that " .... Admittedly, we think MLM growth in Singapore may not be overly exciting as compared to China. Our channel checks reveal that alcohol consumption per capita in Singapore is about 16 to 17 litres, a tad higher than 15 litres in Malaysia ....".
CARLSBERG SAYS S'PORE UNIT TO CONTRIBUTE 30% OF NET PROFIT
CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA expects CARLSBERG SINGAPORE pl to contribute about 30% to its Net Profit in the FYE Dec 2010.
CARLSBERG MALAYSIA MD - SOREN HOLM JENSEN said the Singapore operations were already a successful and profitable entity, having posted a Revenue of SGD78m and a Net Profit of SGD10m (RM24m) in 2008.
OPERATIONAL SYNERGY TO SAVE RM46M
" .... A key binding factor is the significant sourcing and operational synergy that would create RM22m cost savings. The total incremental Net Profit from the acquisition, excluding funding cost, is RM46m ...." he said adding " .... The main synergies are that it would shift sourcing back to CARLSBERG; advertising and promotions would enjoy double tax deduction, as well as the operational synergies ...." said SOREN JENSEN at a media briefing.
The MOU includes a 20-year territorial rights concession; sourcing rights with significant synergies; profit guarantee for CARLSBERG SINGAPORE the FYs 2009 and 2010; and CARLSBERG as to support any board proposal to declare a dividend of between 50% and 70% of CARLSBERG MALAYSIA's distributable profit for a duration of five years.
PROFIT ESTIMATES OF RM113M FOR MERGED UNIT FOR 2010
JENSEN also said that preliminary estimates showed CARLSBERG MALAYSIA's Net Profit for 2010 will increase to RM113m from RM76m in 2008, on the assumption that the proposal to acquire CSPL was approved by Minority Shareholders. The estimates are subject o a full due diligence by an Independent Adviser.
NO BORROWINGS FOR ACQUISITION
JENSEN said CARLSBERG MALAYSIA would likely complete the acquisition without borrowing as it had RM260m Cash and would be able to accumulate sufficient cash by end 2009.
" .... But we might require short-term borrowings for Working Capital. In any event, we will return to a Net Cash level in a short period ...." he said,
SINGAPORE MARKET SHARE
On CARLSBERG SINGAPORE, JENSEN said it held a 21% market share in Singapore and that the CARLSBERG brand ranked second in the Republic after the locally brewed 'Tiger' beer.
" .... The brand is positioned in the upper mainstream segment and has been steadily gaining share in the segment since the 1990s. It also has a stronghold in coffee shops and hawker centres, supported by strong branding in both on- and off-trade ...." he said adding that Singapore was an attractive beer market, with a compound annual growth rate of 4% from 2000 to 2008, from 642,000 hectolitres (HL) to 858,000HL.
JENSEN also said that CARLSBERG MALAYSIA viewed its proposed acquisition of CARLSBERG SINGAPORE as an added advantage as it would give the brewer a better understanding of new 'Tiger' beer products, which are generally launched in Singapore first before Malaysia.
CARLSBERG REPORTED LOWER NET PROFIT FOR QE MAR 2009
For the quarter ending Mar 31, 2009, CARLSBERG MALAYSIA posted a 19% YoY lower Net Profit of RM21.4m on slightly higher Revenue of of RM289.8m and had Cash and Cash Equivalents of RM231.7m. Trade Receivables recorded RM140.5m. Total liabilities were RM123.6m.
CARLSBERG MALAYSIA brands include Tuborg, SKOL Beer, Danish Royal Stout, Tetley's English Ale, Jolly Shandy and Nutrimalt.
旺猫有给bonus的前科。黑狗就没有这个习惯。
旺猫
http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... %3D%3D&noupdate=yes
黑狗
个有千秋。
Battle for market share between GAB and Carlsberg
黑狗
“Tiger Beer's exceptional growth means it may now be the largest beer brand in Malaysia, in terms of volume and sales value. Guinness and Heineken have also shown impressive double-digit growth,”
旺猫
“Three years ago, we had less than 5% market share in the premium beer segment. We are looking at about 20% market share by year-end,”
track consumption at supermarket and hypermarket, Carlsberg Malaysia and its competitor have market shares of 47% and 37%, respectively.
“We will also be having a lot of exciting events. We are also gearing up for the Euro 2012 as Carlsberg is the main sponsor. It will be a very exciting time ahead,”
GAB vs Carlsberg Malaysia
More cheers on way for GAB, Guinness
GAB's profit had been derived from its Malaysian operations solely but Carlsberg had consolidated its Singapore results and an associate stake in Lion Brewery, Sri Lanka.
GAB currently commands about 60% of the malt liquor market in Malaysia.
Guinness Stout is clearly the market leader in the stout segment where it controls market share in excess of 70%
Carlsberg is also strong in the imported beer segment where its brands Hoegaarden and Corona are frontrunners.
In the long run, Carlsberg's subsidiary in Singapore may drive stronger sales as RHB Research in its report cited that the Singaporean market has a compounded annual growth rate of 4% against a 0.9% per annum in Malaysia.
The Singapore operations has also increased its capacity utilisation from 57% to currently estimated capacity of 67%
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